13 Years Ago in Mojave…

Editor’s Note: SpaceShipOne would fly one more time, on Oct. 4, 2004, to claim the $10 million Ansari X Prize, before being retired and shipped off to be placed on permanent display the National Air & Space Museum.

Do you remember the optimism then? Do you recall promises by Burt Rutan and Richard Branson that they would soon inaugurate the era of space tourism with SpaceShipTwo? How it would all happen by 2007 or 2008?

Thirteen years, four deaths, three hospitalizations, one wrecked spaceship and numerous inaccurate predictions later, there has not been a single human suborbital space flight. Not one.

The very elements of SpaceShipOne that Rutan promoted as the safest innovations to come out of the program — the hybrid engine and feather reentry system — figured in the fatalities of the SpaceShipTwo program.

SpaceShipOne was a tremendous engineering achievement. And Scaled is justifiably proud of it.

But, it also turned out to be an extremely fragile thing upon which to base a commercial suborbital space tourism program. It bred a dangerous overconfidence and enshrined some poor engineering choices into the design of SpaceShipTwo.

The hybrid engine took a decade to scale up for SpaceShipTwo. It also claimed three lives in an explosion because Scaled had misplaced confidence in the safety of nitrous oxide.

Scaled Composites also lacked the required expertise to properly address pilot error in a human spaceship. When that was pointed out by FAA safety experts with experience on the space shuttle, George Nield issued a waiver instead of making Scaled perform the analysis properly. Whether a proper analysis would have prevented the loss of SpaceShipTwo Enterprise and Mike Alsbury is something we will never know.

So, this is a rather bittersweet anniversary. Scaled can certainly take pride in its accomplishments. It was the apex of Burt Rutan’s career. But, that pride is mixed with knowledge of all the pain and frustrations that occurred in the decade that followed. The loss of valued colleagues and the destruction of a ship engineers spent years building.

  • Andrew Tubbiolo

    Gosh this has to be one of the longest grinding deaths of a dead end technology.

  • Jimmy S. Overly

    How does VG keep paying their people?

  • ThomasLMatula

    I don’t know. The British government kept funding passenger flying boat research for decades after it was clear their day had ended.

  • Hemingway

    I saved this quote: “The Virgin Galactic design is an evolutionary dead end – it cannot be scaled up for orbital flight.” It will also be the death knell of Spaceport America in the future.

  • savuporo

    > Do you remember the optimism then?

    Yeah and i see yet another wave of mindless optimism around some other equally harebrained humans to mars ideas now. Something about space that makes people retire their critical thinking ?