Comments on: Golden Spike to Unveil Plans Next Thursday

By: alex wilson

alex wilson — Sat, 08 Dec 2012 04:42:01 +0000

As someone very wise once said to me: “Saying something will work doesn’t mean it *will*!”. They weren’t talking about heat shields, but if there’s one place you do not want to be wrong, a heat shield’s ability to handle the thermal load it will face has to be one of them, true?
saw the coverage of their announcement on the BBC, and the commentary on their mission from John Logsden. he hit a lot of the same points I did, so I don’t feel like I’m being too pessimistic at all in what I said.

By: Dave Klingler

Dave Klingler — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 23:32:25 +0000

Alex, I have the impression that Dragon actually is capable of a lunar return. According to Elon Musk (in an article on this website), “The performance of the heat shield was spectacular. In an exercise of caution, we designed the heat shield to not just handle Earth orbit re-entry, but to actually be able to handle a worst-case, off-nominal lunar and Mars re-entry, so it’s an extremely capable heat shield and opens up a lot of possibilities.”

By: Andy

Andy — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 22:11:17 +0000

@alexwilson

Dragon’s PICA-X heatshield can handle lunar or Mars re-entry. Links to a couple articles where Elon says so:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120523181211.htm

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/falcon9/002/100716firststage/

By: alex wilson

alex wilson — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 20:40:04 +0000

Problems:
Dragon, at present, doesn’t have a heat shield capable of withstanding the thermal load imposed by a lunar return trajectory. That means either:
a transfer stage/vehicle will have to be designed and built so the Dragon is slowed down to enter LEO, or (transfer vehicle) it waits in LEO for the crew to dock with it for return to the Earth, or,
SpaceX finds the $$$ to develop and test a new heat shield for Dragon…plus probably upgrades to the capsule to make it more ‘livable’ for the multiple days a lunar transfer mimssion would take.
as others have said: where’s the money? quoted per-mission price is $2 BILLION a pop, so this is not something that’s going to be funded by a couple of really-interested people, no matter how rich they are.
still lots of “fill-in-the-blank” spots in the plan. inflatable habs haven’t been tested for long-term use in the type of thermal/radiation/micrometeor environment the Moon represents. upper stage is still a notional concept. no design to even begin testing for a lunar lander…..all of which is going to suck up even more $$$$$$$$.
it’d be nice if it happened, but as of now, too many blank spaces, too many variable, and not enough explanation of where the piles of cash are going to come from to bet on this horse.

By: raw

raw — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 16:47:56 +0000

MUST…GET…INVOLVED. NOT MUCH TIME LEFT…

By: Dave Klingler

Dave Klingler — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 04:52:27 +0000

Just for fun, I’m going to make some uneducated guesses:

- International Lunar Observatory Association is involved as a funder, because they’ve already offered a portion of the money.
- SpaceX launchers with new lox/methane upper stages, because it’s a technical fit and because lox/methane could work well for depots
- Bigelow hab, because they’re already involved with SpaceX and because they’re the only inflatable game in town
- EML1, because it has a great view for tourists and because lunar orbits aren’t generally stable
- 2-stage lox/methane reusable lander, because it’s simple to build a reusable lander that way (alternative would be NOFBX, but since Elon wants to head to Mars, it seems to me he’d go for lox/methane.
- Dragon return capsule, because it (almost) exists

Structuring a deal like this one would help SpaceX with Dragon and upper stage development, especially in the face of reduced CCiCap funding, whether or not it succeeds. And a lot of pieces are in place or on the way.

By: Nickolai

Nickolai — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 01:01:09 +0000

I really like this idea, it sounds awesome, but I’m skeptical. The business model for commercial crew is, IMHO, largely riding on a single company’s success – Bigelow, as they’re the only company that’s serious about providing a LEO destination other than the ISS. And their business model relies on countries like the UAE, who don’t have any space infrastructure, purchasing space/time on Bigelow stations. Supposedly they have clients lined up, but is there such a demand for lunar bases? I’m just trying to be realistic, I see this as shaky, but it would be totally awesome if it worked.

By: Charles Lurio

Charles Lurio — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 19:40:08 +0000

Dennis, I agree, that’s number one.

Other factors could fold in re ‘other kinds of money’, e.g.: Does the plan assume that the crewed Dragon is developed by date x in large part by Commercial Crew Program dollars? Is there anyone who doesn’t believe that Congress will again slash CCP money? CCiCap is not going to stay on schedule because SLS/MPCV remains Congress’s top priority even if they have to drag all else, including ISS and CCP, into the grave with it.

By: Dennis Wingo

Dennis Wingo — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 03:22:21 +0000

Lets hope that there is a bit of substance to this and not just another instance of promoters promoting a promotion.

The key question is.

Where’s the money?

By: Doug Messier

Doug Messier — Sun, 02 Dec 2012 00:29:54 +0000

Alan Stern works part-time at Southwest Research institute, which gives him time to do independent projects like uwingu and Golden Spike. That has been part of the arrangement when he came to SwRI.

By: Robert Clark

Robert Clark — Sat, 01 Dec 2012 20:46:59 +0000

Thanks for that.

Bob Clark

By: Duncan Sparks

Duncan Sparks — Sat, 01 Dec 2012 20:45:06 +0000

Mr. Lurio do you know for a fact that Southwest Research Institute is not involved in Golden Spike or are you guessing? Why shouldn’t Southwest Research Institute invest or support things like this? Makes sense that they would since it is space related and they do space stuff – they have commercial agreements in place with XCOR for example.

By: Charles Lurio

Charles Lurio — Sat, 01 Dec 2012 20:03:49 +0000

Don’t accuse SwRI of “financial interest[s]” in this stuff.

E.g. Alan made sure that I did NOT connect Uwingu to SwRI. That, and I assume Golden Spike as well, is a separate venture he’s involved in

By: Ed Lantz

Ed Lantz — Sat, 01 Dec 2012 19:13:35 +0000

Thank goodness that private individuals and companies can come together and launch a visionary project like this. It is more than a high-risk commercial venture. It is an inspiration for humankind that will make a lasting difference in the world.

By: Duncan Sparks

Duncan Sparks — Sat, 01 Dec 2012 15:41:13 +0000

Southwest Research Institute is allowing its senior employees such as Mr. Stern to found these new companies. Southwest Research Institute must have some sort of financial interest in these companies such as uwingu and Golden Spike.