Dragon on the end of the space station's Canadarm2. (Credit: NASA)
SpaceX’s successful Dragon flight to the International Space Station did more than open the door for commercial cargo delivery, it also doubled the company’s valuation, according to PrivCo:
Furthermore, SpaceX’s last valuation on secondary markets of $10/share or $1.2 billion is dated to April 2012 before its historic mission. PrivCo estimates that given the mission’s success, new contracts the company stands to gain, and its rapid growth, SpaceX’s share price has now doubled in value to a PrivCo-estimated $20/share with a valuation of $2.4 billion. In an additional valuation data point, PrivCo confirms a recent $18.50/share ask price from secondary markets, up 85% from its last trade in April.
Furthermore based on VC rounds, PrivCo estimates that Elon Musk owns approximately 65% of SpaceX. At the $2.4 billion valuation, Musk’s SpaceX stake is worth about $1.6 billion (a healthy addition to his most recent Forbes estimate of $2 billion before SpaceX’s recent mission success).
“SpaceX’s successfully completed space cargo mission can be analogized to a biotech company that just had its new drug successfully pass Phase 3 clinical trials,” said PrivCo CEO & Founder Sam Hamadeh in a statement. “The impact on the company’s valuation after proof of success is dramatically positive.”
“SpaceX also shows private secondary markets working at their best,” added Hamadeh. “Prior to this binary event (success or failure) occurring, both buyers and sellers in SpaceX private stock were able to benefit: buyers were able to place bets on the company at just $10/share, roughly half of the company’s value after the success of its launch; while an inside seller was able to take some chips off the table ahead of the launch in case it failed. With SpaceX’s valuation on secondary markets still in the low-billions, this is precisely the profile of a private company that makes for ideal secondary market trading,” Hamadeh explained.
As Silicon Valley continues to lose steam following the Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) debacle, investors may soon be lining up to invest in aerospace names like SpaceX or privately-held competitors like Sierra Nevada (PrivCo Ticker: SIEEP). Grantham explained to PrivCo that SpaceX would go public only when the time is right. In a public statement, Musk said that before an IPO, SpaceX would first need to establish a reliable rhythm of launches for NASA and other customers, a process which could take years.
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