Space.com reports on a panel discussion at NewSpace 2010 in which participants predicted that the price of suborbital space flights would drop significantly within four years as the volume of flights grew:
By 2014, a ticket for suborbital flight is likely to cost between $50,000 and $100,000 as the industry develops to offer hundreds or even thousands of flights annually, according to a panel of experts speaking Friday at the Space Frontier Foundation’s annual conference in Sunnyvale, Calif.
The most optimistic estimates were offered by Lee Valentine, executive vice president of the Space Studies Institute in Princeton, N.J., and an investor in XCOR Aerospace of Mojave, Calif., and David Masten, chief executive of Masten Space Systems of Mojave, who said the industry would be offering between 1,000 and 100,000 flights annually…
All panelists agreed that the market for suborbital tourism will expand as the price per seat drops. Valentine estimated that by the summer of 2014, the cost per seat would be $50,000, while Masten put the ticket price at $75,000 and Charania suggested it would be $100,000.
We’ll see. Right now, the biggest obstacle the commercial suborbital sector is facing is actually flying suborbital. Nobody has done so since SpaceShipOne on Oct. 4, 2004. Since then, lots of talk, smoke and investment, but not a single flight, much less a paying passenger.
All that may change in the next few years, of course. XCOR, in particular, is very confident these days. They’ve got the engine down pat (it’s their specialty after all), and now the rest of the plan seems to be coming together. They also appear to have enough money to do the job.
One sign of XCOR’s confidence is that Xtraordinary Adventures, which is co-marketing $95,000 tickets on Lynx, is actually using 2012 as the start of commercial operations. XCOR is a very conservative company and has been traditionally reluctant to give firm dates for anything.
Meanwhile, Virgin Galactic seems to have backed away from any specifics in recent months. The company line is that they will fly commercially when it’s deemed safe enough to put designer Burt Rutan, billionaire Richard Branson and Branson’s family aboard SpaceShipTwo.
That’ll have to be pretty f-ing safe!
All this is taking place amid rumors of troubles with SpaceShipTwo’s engine development. Progress has certainly been slow and was marked by a fatal explosion in 2007. There are rumors of serious oscillation issues in test firings of the hybrid engine.
The stories have bolstered XCOR’s confidence that the little rocket company that could has a real chance to begin commercial operations before its Goliath competitor. They wouldn’t mind that. Not a bit.
Again, we’ll see. The problems could be real, XCOR could stumble along the way, or it could simply be that Virgin Galactic has entered stealth mode with regard to its propulsion system.
If this last one is true, it reminds me of the sequence in Return of the Jedi as the Rebel fleet prepares to attack Death Star 2.0. Things don’t go quite according to plan. In this case, things might go a little bit like this…
INT BRANSON’S MANSION – THRONE ROOM
Branson, Whitehorn, and Lee watch a giant flat screen as WhiteKnightTwo and SpaceShipTwo reach 50,000 feet over the Mojave.
BRANSON
As you will now see, my young apprentice, your friends have failed. Now witness the firepower of this fully fueled and operational space plane. (into comlink) Launch at will, Commander.
On the screen, SpaceShipTwo drops from its mother ship. Seconds later, the space plane’s engine ignites with a giant blast of smoke and flames.
INT XCOR LYNX – COCKPIT
The ship is buffeted by a shock wave from the nearby SpaceShipTwo. Searfoss and his copilot are stunned by the sight of VMS Enterprise flying under full power.
SEARFOSS
That blast came from the Enterprise! That thing’s operational!ACKBAR
It was a trap!
INT BRANSON’S MANSION – THRONE ROOM
A shocked Lee watches as SpaceShipTwo roars toward suborbital space.
BRANSON
You have lost. And your friends at XCOR will not survive. There is no escape, my young apprentice. XCOR will die…as will all our competitors.
WHITEHORN
It is pointless to resist, Lee. Join us.BRANSON
It is your destiny.
LEE
Nooooooo!!
Lee draws his lightsaber. Whitehorn follows suit.
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