The FAA’s newly released 2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts report indicates that Bigelow Aerospace’s two planned Sundancer space stations would generate substantial demand for commercial launch services over the next 10 years.
These new stations could create significant additional demand for commercial launches: in excess of 150 launches through 2020 according to company projections.
With the initial launch of station modules in 2014, that would amount to an average of more than 20 launches annually over a seven year period. The number of launches would ramp up during the later years as both the Sundancer 1 and 2 stations became operational.
Below is the section of the FAA report relating to the Las Vegas company’s plans.
Bigelow Aerospace Orbital Habitats
The first commercial orbital facilities are under development by Bigelow Aerospace. Bigelow’s goal is to create crewed orbital facilities based on expandable habitats. Two initial demonstration spacecraft, Genesis I and Genesis II, were commercially launched by Dnepr rockets in 2006 and 2007, respectively. These spacecraft are successfully testing and validating systems critical for future Bigelow expandable habitats. Beyond Genesis, Bigelow is developing larger stations that could be deployed during the forecast period.
Station #1: Bigelow Aerospace is now working to manufacture the Sundancer habitat, a full-scale human-habitable spacecraft. Sundancer will offer 175 cubic meters of habitable volume and be able to support up to three people. The first Sundancer launch date is estimated for 2014 but will be determined by the availability of the necessary transportation systems to support the transfer of crew and cargo. Shortly after Sundancer, Bigelow plans to launch a node and bus system that will be combined with Sundancer to add operational functionality as part of the first orbital complex. Bigelow then anticipates launching a second Sundancer and larger BA-330 habitat. The BA-330 spacecraft will provide roughly 300 cubic meters of habitable volume. The two Sundancers, the node and bus, and a BA-330 will form Bigelow’s first orbital complex. The complex will require four cargo flights and three crew transfer vehicle (CTV) flights to deploy.
Station #2: Bigelow proposes the launch of a second, larger station could occur in the 2016 time period. This larger station would consist of four BA-330 habitat connected by two busses and would generate significantly greater launch demand.
These new stations could create significant additional demand for commercial launches: in excess of 150 launches through 2020 according to company projections.
Bigelow business plans include selling four-week trips to its modules to astronauts from various national space agencies. The company will also offer full module lease opportunities. A critical consideration for Bigelow’s plans is the availability of affordable commercial transportation to carry people and cargo to and from its orbital facilities. Once in orbit, the habitats will require a regular supply of both crew and cargo. This requirement increases launch demand within the Orbital Facility Assembly and Supply market, but it necessitates developing a new private sector crew capsule to affordably, reliably, and safely transfer Bigelow personnel and customers to and from its orbital complexes. Given the uncertainty in CTV development, launch demand launch demand associated with a Bigelow space complex is not included in the forecast.
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