Artists' conception of a Falcon 9 launch. (Credit: SpaceX)
SpaceX founder weighs in on Falcon 9 launch readiness
Spaceflight Now
When the Falcon 9 does lift off, Musk said SpaceX’s hard-earned experience with the smaller Falcon 1 rocket will give the launcher a better shot at success.
“I’d give it perhaps 70 to 80 percent likelihood of success, of complete success where it goes to orbit,” Musk said. “Obviously, that’s not 100 percent and that’s just my personal guess. I do think the odds are much better with Falcon 9 than Falcon 1 because, first of all, SpaceX is a much larger and more mature company with a much broader range of expertise. I don’t feel as though we’re weak in any area of rocket launch at this point.”
The Falcon 9 uses nine first stage engines nearly identical to the single powerplant flying on the Falcon 1. The Merlin engine has had no major problems on four out of five Falcon 1 launches. Another Merlin engine, modified to ignite at altitude and burn in vacuum, will power the Falcon 9’s second stage to orbit.
“A lot of the hardware on Falcon 9 has already flown on Falcon 1, the engines in particular are very well characterized, a lot of the avionics, the structural design, the loads, stage separation, a lot of the things that have caused (issues) in the past, have now had flight history and we understand them pretty well,” Musk said.
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